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While overall the global warming with the causes and global processes connected to well mixed greenhouse gases (GHGs), especially CO2, and their impacts on global to continental scales are well understood with a high level of confidence, there are knowledge gaps concerning the impact of many non-CO2 radiative forcers leading to low confidence in the conclusions. This relates mainly to specific anthropogenic and natural precursor emissions of short-lived GHGs and aerosols and their precursors. These gaps and uncertainties also exist in their subsequent effects on atmospheric chemistry and climate, through direct emissions dependent on changes in e.g., agriculture production and technologies based on scenarios for future development as well as feedbacks of global warming on emissions, e.g., permafrost thaw. In addition to the atmospheric radiative forcing (gaseous or aerosols), albedo changes connected to land-use and land-cover can play a role, depending on the adaptation or mitigation measures included in different scenarios. Thus, FOCI responds to the call HORIZON-CL5-2021- D1-01-0 Improved understanding of greenhouse gas fluxes and radiative forcers, including carbon dioxide removal technologies, with topic D1-01-01 area b) and its main goal is to assess the impact of key radiative forcers, where and how they arise, the processes of their impact on the climate system, to find and test an efficient implementation of these processes into global Earth System Models (ESMs) and into Regional Climate Models (RCMs), and finally to use the tools developed to investigate mitigation and/or adaptation policies incorporated in selected scenarios of future development targetted at Europe and other regions of the world. We will develop new regionally tuned scenarios based on improved emissions to assess the effects of non-CO2 forcers. Mutual interactions of the results and climate services producers and other end-users will provide feedbacks for the specific scenarios preparation and potential application to support the decision making, including climate policy.
- To examine and evaluate the climate relevant processes and feedbacks of anthropogenic primary and secondary radiative forcing species, based on new and available observations datasets (WP1)
- To examine and evaluate the climate relevant processes and feedbacks of natural aerosols and BVOCs, as precursors for SOA based on new and available observations datasets (WP2)
- To integrate observational and modelling datasets and data products for improving and evaluating multiscale climate and atmospheric composition models (cross-cutting activity)
- To improve and evaluate state-of-the-art global ESMs (WP3) and regional climate and atmospheric composition models (RCMs) (WP4), targeting specific critical processes with the largest uncertainties (WP6) for improving future next generation climate projections
- To improve tailored emission inventories for non-CO2 radiative forcers and scenarios for detailed, high-resolution, multiscale climate and associated impact projections for specific regions (e.g. Europe, South Asia, Africa and Arctic), using innovative coupled modelling frameworks (WP5 and WP7)
- To undertake innovative and regionally relevant integrated analysis of optimised mitigation strategies, to support climate policy, deriving multiple benefits (e.g. climate mitigation and adaptation, human health, social, economic, and developmental), quantifying the sensitivity of climate system tipping points to non-CO2 forcers and meeting the global challenge of stabilising global temperatures and minimising the associated impacts on climate, weather, air quality and health (WP6, WP7)
- To implement a global outreach, dissemination and stakeholder engagement strategy targeted at providing updated scientific evidence on the impact from key non-CO2 radiative forcers for supporting national and international policy and operational services, including formulating recommendations on the most efficient pathways supported by integrating climate, health, urban and energy services (WP8)
- To guarantee the efficient implementation of the project and delivery of its outcomes through a robust coordination and management plan incorporating administrative, financial, operational and monitoring infrastructure and mechanisms with independent scientific oversight (WP9).